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Matthew 3:7-10

But when he saw many of the Pharisees and Sadducees coming to where he was baptizing, he said to them: "You brood of vipers! Who warned you to flee from the coming wrath?

Produce fruit in keeping with repentance.

And do not think you can say to yourselves, 'We have Abraham as our father.' I tell you that out of these stones God can raise up children for Abraham.

The ax is already at the root of the trees, and every tree that does not produce good fruit will be cut down and thrown into the fire.


Stupid Fact of the Week
There was only one civilian casualty during the three-day Battle of Gettysburg

22 February, 2009
Oscar Night 2009
STANDINGS:

"E" Mendenhall: 17.0
"Rock-el" Rockel: 15.0
"Da-Ego" Nazionale: 13.1
"The Catheter" Cathey: 13.1
"Last Stand" Custer: 13.0
"Tiger" B.A.L.M.: 11.0
"Turmoil" Turmel: 11.0
"General" Mills: 6.0

Blog-O-Matic:
Hugh's on stage. All bets are off. Let's go...
Self-deprecating humor, recession humor, "that's how I roll," and singing - so far, so good... nice to see Jackman hasn't seen "The Reader" either... Standing O already (this is going the way of the State of the Union Address)...
Technical difficulty #1... Standing O #2 (gracious, we're going to be here all night)... 5 presenters? really?... Alright, let's get this over with... I feel last place calling my name...
Cathey, Ego, and E-Mend score early...
Steve and Tina... effing brilliant.... and a scientology joke - good stuff... Rockel scores his first (as does Bother-Me) as Ego and E-Mend add to their lead... We also have our first political message as well as Thanks Mom #1 and Thanks God #'s 1 &2...
Rockel, Cathey, E-Mend, and B-Mend score with "Slumdog"'s first statue of (presumably) many... (E-Mend now a perfect 3/3... Mills, Custer, and Turmel a scoreless 0/3)...
First SOCIAL of the night - Wall-E... Eric now 4/4... is there any stopping that kid?
Time to start breaking some ties... give it to me Jack... Ego gets it win "something something something cube"...
wow... great set for the art awards... "Button" wins giving a lift to everyone save Turmel and Ego... E-Mend keeps rolling...
Costume is a volatile category, with any nominee awarding points except for Milk... Period takes it again... E-Mend continues to dominate...
Makeup... the last remaining social category... everybody wins or everybody loses... SOCIAL!!! Points all around, no position changes...
Hahahah... nicely done Mr. Stiller (and, may I say, Natalie is the perfect foil)... Slumdog get's it's second...
Tie breaks again... Will ego go 2/2 in this category? No! Cathey grabs a tenth of a point... Rockel, amongst many others, 0/2 in the tiebreaks...
Musical break - meh. At least we got to see Baz...
Joel Grey - what a guy... And now, ladies and gentlemen, the moment you've all been expecting (except, maybe, Turmoil)... Heath Ledger.
Man on Wire wins as E-Mend goes a perfect 10/10 in major categories...
Social disappointment as the cute girl documentary short takes it, leaving very little room to break ties...
Rockel underestimates "Button" as E-Mend takes a lead that Rockel will not be able to surmount.
E-Mend finally drops one (as does Rockel) as "Knight" steals one from "Wall-E"
The Tech awards stump the majority, but Ego's mounting a comeback...
Slumdog's big night continues while Rockel gains some ground on Cathey...
Analysis time... Rockel can't do better than 2nd... E-Mend is obviously in the drivers seat, but Nazi and Cathey still have a shot at the top spot...
Jerry Lewis - class act.
Ego's comeback stalls as Slumdog's goldrush continues...
Legend singing Gabriel with Indian african-garb-wearing backup singers gently swaying... interesting to say the least... nice mashup at the end...
Rockel moves ahead of Cathey and Ego stays alive with Jai Ho...
E-Mend's only competition now is Ego, while Rockel is still alive for a 2nd place finish...
Mills pulls a HUGE upset as Japan takes the stage...
The next segment is the big one... E-Mend is taking big risks in both of the lead acting categories... if neither one pays off, we could be looking at an Ego upset when Director is announced...
...but first... we pause for In Memoriam... woof, another tough year... let's stop and take another pause in honor of Pinter...
Director first... uh-oh... Ego will need to take this to stay alive in the hunt for the top... Ego strikes out! as the rest pick up a point as Danny bounds about the stage (and gives credit where credit is due... well done, Danny)...
With only three categories left, E-Mend secures the victory... The fight will be for 2nd place, where Rockel currently has a target on his back...
Marion... what a babe... Here we go... actress... Hathaway gives Mills a last minute boost, Leo gives E-Mend a little extra distance from the pack, Streep gives B-Mend a tiny boost to a possible 3rd place... Winslet keeps the 2nd place pack deadlocked...
The Brit gets it... the second place pack takes a futile step forward toward the distant Mendenhall...
The second place battle dies with the Actor... If Rourke takes it, Ego and Cathey - with very precious tie break points in hand - vault past Rockel for a two-way tie for 2nd... if Penn takes it, Rockel secures the runner-up position...
If I knew Kingsley was going to intro Rourke I may have had to switch my prediction... and second place goes to ---- ROCKEL! Sean Penn! Sean Penn! Politics! Politics! Gay Pride!
Mendenhall and Rockel cash in on the stunner and sit comfortably atop the standings...
Well, with only picture left, you're looking at the final standings (though the points may change)... Mills could pick up another point with an upset, but it won't be enough to pull him out of the basement...
Slumdog finishes strong, as does the Academy - well done, terrific format (with very few exceptions, and... I miss Jon)...
Great year, everyone. Despite my personal best showing in this event, the male Mendenhall was far too much for anyone to handle, posting the highest score EVER in a Rockel Oscar contest...

Good Night, East Coast...
posted by Rockel @ 4:08 PM   2 comments
It's almost that time... Let's get this on the record...
Actor in a Leading Role

I saw all but one of the performances in this category. Unfortunately, the one I missed was Richard Jenkins in "The Visitor," who was supposedly magnificent. Fortunately (for me), Mr. Jenkins isn't getting much talk as a favorite in this category. I was somewhat disappointed with Langella's Nixon, although with so much build-up to the film it may have been inevitable. Some people are predicting him to do better than expected in the voting due to his status as a veteran and his performance in last year's (Oscar snubbed) "Starting Out in the Evening." As much as I enjoy most of David Fincher's work, I had a lot of issues with "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," not the least of which was Pitt's above-average, though far from brilliant and somewhat monotone, "ageless" performance. If I had to pick between the remaining two I would hand it over to Penn, who I thought did a more convincing job of truly embodying a more rounded character than did Rourke, however, the buzz seems to be pointing to Mickey. All that being said, my pick is for politics:

Sean Penn - "Milk"

Actor in a Supporting Role

Alright, I've seen all of the performances in this category, not that it really helps in this case. I truly admire Turmel's large round ones in picking PS Hoffman for this, and for Mr. Hoffman's sake I wouldn't mind seeing Turmel take this point. Not much else to say here other than the fact that I think Gary Oldman's supporting turn in "The Dark Knight" was the most overlooked performance this year and I would have no hesitation removing Shannon, or even Brolin, from the list to make space. Alright, there we have it. Easiest pick this year:

Heath Ledger - "The Dark Knight"

Actress in a Leading Role

Here's where I was really slacking... I've seen one of these performances - Meryl Streep in "Doubt," which was one of several excellent performances in the film (props to the Academy for recognizing them as such). Hathaway had the early buzz, Leo has the indy vote as well as Mr. Ebert's vote, "Changeling" didn't make enough of a splash to bump up the buzz on Jolie, and Winslet may be double-dipping with her performance in "Revolutionary Road."

Kate Winslet - "The Reader"

Actress in a Supporting Role

This category usually baffles me. I love Amy Adams and Marisa Tomei, but neither of their performances this year were strong enough to warrant a statue. I think we all know how I feel about Penelope Cruz (and, unfortunately [I suppose], this is the one performance I didn't see in this category). There is some worry that the dual nominations from "Doubt" may knock Viola Davis' brilliant performance out of the running due to split voting. Taraji P. Henson is picking up some late steam due to the fact that her performance was in the only film from this category to pick up a best picture nomination. However, Ms. Henson's racial-stereotype-fest performance (due in large part to the writing) was one of the more troubling aspects (in my opinion) of "Button." So with the same stubbornness that cost me a point in this category in the Jennifer Hudson incident (and because I don't want to see "Doubt" go away empty handed), I will ignore the cries of "Penelope" and go with:

Viola Davis - "Doubt"

Animated Feature Film

I didn't see "Bolt." "Panda" was a fun in a "hey, Jack Black is kooky" kind of way. Second easiest category:

"Wall-E"

Art Direction

I didn't see "Changeling" or "Duchess," and while the look of both (from trailers/tv spots) was impressive, I think the poor box office showings (and lack of buzz/other awards) will make this moot. "Revolutionary Road" was impressive in a quiet, orderly stereotype-of-surbia way along with some fun old-school boiler room/boys club stuff, but how do you compete with "epics" like "Button" and "Knight?" A big part of me wants to go with "Knight," but the other part says that this isn't the category to be stubborn with, so:

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

Cinematography

Always a tough category, this year proves no exception for Cinematography. As previously stated, I haven't seen "Changeling," and I don't have too many reservations in eliminating that one from consideration in this category. "Button" was ambitious on many levels, photography not excluded, riding a wide range of looks from the sterile modern hospital, to the warmly colored flashbacks, to the flashbacks within flashbacks, to the harshness of the open sea, to the beautiful opening sequence. Not to be outdone, "The Dark Knight," arguably (as several critics have outright stated) the most impressively shot film of the year, ran the gamut from intense crime/interrogation scenes to soft, dramatic fare, to several larger-than-life action sequences (shot on IMAX cameras, no less). Still, if there was ever a case to be made for "most deserving" of an Oscar, based on nominations (now that both Randy Newman and Martin Scorcese have collected), it would be perennial Coen shooter, Roger Deacons, who co-shot "The Reader" with equally talented Chris Menges. And then there's the odds-on Best Picture candidate, "Slumdog Millionaire." Although it was shot entirely in India, I think the Dutch have equal claim to the photography... I felt like I needed to walk around with my head cocked to one side for several days after watching it. Even so, it cannot be ignored that it is the front runner for Best Picture and the photography was a major player in it's effectiveness as a story and as a film.

Anthony Dod Mantle - "Slumdog Millionaire"

Costume Design

We've got the 30's ("Australia"), the 50's ("Revolutionary Road"), the 70's ("Milk"), the better part of the 20th century ("Benjamin Button"), and then the always favored period piece ("The Duchess"). As I haven't taken too many risks thus far, and as I love Catherine Martin (not to take away from her incredible talent, as her costumes are always - this case no exception - brilliant), and as I'd hate to see Baz's latest walk away empty handed:

Catherine Martin - "Australia"

Directing

Unfortunately, I don't think "Button" nor "Frost/Nixon" display anything near the best work of their respective directors. Again, I have not seen "The Reader" (I'm saying this quite often, perhaps it will be my downfall), but "Milk" and "Slumdog" would most likely remain my top two, as they appear to be for many critics. At the outset of typing this post I had made up my mind on all 24 categories. To this point I have not changed my mind in any categories. However, that may change here as I am now no longer sure which name I will type below. ..... thinking .... I love Danny Boyle - an Irishman who tells bittersweet stories, what's not to love? And his film is exceptional. On the other hand, as much as "Oscar loves a comeback story," (every news organizations/critics justification for placing Rourke above Penn as the front runner for Actor) Oscar also loves politics, controversy, and real life stories. .... thinking ....:

Danny Boyle - "Slumdog Millionaire"

Documentary Feature

Here's another instance where politics/controversy may come into play, with the Katrina-centered "Trouble the Water," which, from all accounts, is a terrific documentary (and one I was hoping to watch before the ceremonies... oh well). I'm playing it safe and going with:

"Man on Wire"

Documentary Short

As with all shorts I'm basically going off of the trailers. "Witness" is historic, "Inch" is timely, "Pinki" just started getting a lot of press (unfortunately, "just started" isn't great when the majority of the voting happened a week - several weeks ago)...

"The Conscience of Nhem En"

Film Editing

As much as I think "The Dark Knight" is deserving for the incredible action sequences, I think "Slumdog" may take it here for the same reasons it'll grab cinematography - audiences love it (want to vote for it), and the story is told through engaging photography and editing.

Chris Dickens - "Slumdog Millionaire"

Foreign Language Film

All reports put "The Class" and "Baader Meinhoff" at the top of their game, and presumably this category. But I'm going to have to vote with the popular/most watched choice:

Israel - "Waltz With Bashir"

Makeup

If it weren't a first time nomination I might feel comfortable going with a supreme dark horse here ("Hellboy II"), however, this category really comes down to the Joker's face vs. the younger-and-younger Brad Pitt. If I had my way it would go to "Knight," but I won't:

Greg Cannom - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

Music (Score)

How much would I love to see Newton Howard take this one for "Defiance?" A ton. How much confidence do I have that that will actually happen? None.

A.R. Rahman - "Slumdog Millionaire"

Music (Song)

I know this is usually the Disney/Animated category (in years where there's no strong Musical contender, anyway), but I just can't get excited about "Down to Earth." Even though it's inspirational (and in English), it doesn't move me in the way that both of the "Slumdog" tunes do. Perhaps it's because it is in English/is an "American" song and so it resonates less as it is more familiar (white noise)... Although I'm tempted to place my vote for "O... Saya" due to M.I.A.'s presence on the track (popular pull), I'm going with the tighter, stronger track:

"Jai Ho" - Music by A.R. Rahman; Lyric by Gulzar

Best Picture

Alright, here we go. I think I've done enough of a lead-up to this:

"Slumdog Millionaire"

Short Film (Animated)

This one's actually tougher than I'd expected. I was not too terribly impressed with the trailer for "Lavatory." I saw a lot of potential in the trailer for "La Maison." I actually saw the full versions of "Oktapodi" and "This Way Up," both of which were amazing in completely different ways. But then there's the other perennial favorite, Pixar, with "Presto." "This Way Up" is different, dark, and interesting (a la Tim Burton), "Oktapodi" is endearingly cute, fun, and has a terrific ending that is both completely appropriate and somewhat unexpected, and then there's Pixar. Although my heart says "Oktapodi," my prediction says:

"Presto"

Short Film (Live Action)

This one wasn't difficult at all. Not saying I got it right, but I'm going with:

"Auf Der Strecke (On The Line)"

Sound Editing

Although "The Dark Knight" may very well win this one, it doesn't deserve to. Who does?

Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood - "Wall-E"

Sound Mixing

You could make a very convincing argument that "Wall-E" deserves this as well, but I'll play for a point here:

Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo, and Ed Novick - "The Dark Knight"

Visual Effects

Everybody's talking "Button" here and I'm not exactly sure why. The compositing was definitely not Oscar-worthy, and outside of that what was there? Certainly nothing that compares with Two-Face's face in "Knight" (or, for that matter, the externals of the city of Gotham)... not to mention about half of the entire "Iron Man" film. Because I want to hear John Favreau mentioned in an acceptance speech:

John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick, and Shane Mahan - "Iron Man"

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

No surprises here:

Simon Beaufoy - "Slumdog Millionaire"

Writing (Original Screenplay)

This one's tough. Oscar sometimes goes small here (a la "Little Miss Sunshine"), however, I think "Frozen River" and "Happy-Go-Lucky" may be a bit too small, and although "In Bruges" has built up a bit of a cult following, it is a following made up mostly by those outside the voting members of the Academy. Although "Wall-E" was a great film, I don't think it'll be one of the few animated features to walk away with this award. That's right, another chance to go political:

Dustin Lance Black - "Milk"
posted by Rockel @ 12:09 AM   0 comments
18 February, 2009
THE ROCKEL OSCAR PREDICTION CONTEST EXTRAVAGANZATHON RETURNS
Made it back just in time...

Sincere apologies, once again, for my neglectful ways... and I really have no excuse as I've had nothing but time on my hands as work is slow here, hopefully this will change that.

I have been doing some writing (obviously not here) over the past month or so, which has been rewarding. I've revamped an old short script, nearly completed a feature length script, and have met a few times with a friend who wants to attempt to adapt an H. C. Anderson short story.

But looking to the future, the Oscars are almost upon us... Hollywood Blvd. between Orange and Highland has been closed all week long in preparation... and hopefully you will all take a moment or two to prepare some predictions in an attempt to dethrone me as I defend my title (I won last year, right? Not important, we shall assume I did).

So get your predictions in... same rules as last year, which were the same as the year before... you get one (1) point for every correct prediction except for the three (3) "short" categories, which are worth one-tenth (0.1) of one point each to serve as a tiebreaker... predictions must be in before the ceremony begins... and, unfortunately, the producers of this contest weren't able - in these tough economic times - to raise the funds needed to match last year's prize, so this year the prize will be slashed in half, all the way back to what it was at the first annual contest (from to years ago): just one helping of pride and bragging rights. Still, not too shabby.

I look forward to beating you all.

(nominees can be found here)
posted by Rockel @ 3:43 PM   8 comments
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Lyrics of the Week

ON THE NICKEL
by Tom Waits

("I'd like to do a new song here. This is eh, it's about downtown Los Angeles on 5th Street. And eh all the winos affectionately refer to it as The Nickel. So this is kind of a hobo's lullaby.")

sticks and stones will break my bones,
but i always will be true, and when
your mama is dead and gone,
i'll sing this lullabye just for you,
and what becomes of all the little boys,
who never comb their hair,
well they're lined up all around the block,
on the nickel over there.

so you better bring a bucket,
there is a hole in the pail,
and if you don't get my letter,
then you'll know that i'm in jail,
and what becomes of all the little boys,
who never say their prayers,
well they're sleepin' like a baby,
on the nickel over there.

and if you chew tobacco, and wish upon a star,
well you'll find out where the scarecrows sit,
just like punchlines between the cars,
and i know a place where a royal flush,
can never beat a pair, and even thomas jefferson,
is on the nickel over there.

so ring around the rosie, you're sleepin' in the rain,
and you're always late for supper,
and man you let me down again,
i thought i heard a mockingbird, roosevelt knows where,
you can skip the light, with grady tuck,
on the nickel over there.

so what becomes of all the little boys,
who run away from home,
well the world just keeps gettin' bigger,
once you get out on your own,
so here's to all the little boys,
the sandman takes you where,
you'll be sleepin' with a pillowman,
on the nickel over there.

so let's climb up through that button hole,
and we'll fall right up the stairs,
and i'll show you where the short dogs grow,
on the nickel over there.

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